Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia

March 8, 2022 4:52 pm

Source: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-52

Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-52,2022
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be: (1) human-mediated – due to proximity to human infrastructure, or (2) lightning-caused – due to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather. When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid in fire suppression efforts and future research.

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