June 10, 2021 3:21 pm
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Matthew Charles Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-143,2021
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an “emergent risk” for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change in future. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.